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The pension
Explore the tontine

Modern tontine research

A modern tontine

An annual investment ladder, with longevity sharing to support a longer retirement.

A pension may have to support twenty years of retirement, or forty. Saving alone means deciding how much to spend without knowing how long the money needs to last. A tontine lets members share that uncertainty: the commitments of those who live for less time help support the income of those who live longer.

This proposal combines that agreement with an investment ladder. Each rung prepares for one year’s income. The research brings together the investments, their starting amounts and the rules for sharing fairly among people with different ages and account sizes.

Choose the money to commit

The agreement can cover part of a pension. The chosen contribution is spread across the whole ladder; savings outside it remain available for other purposes. Within the ladder, each rung has an agreed date on which its sharing commitment ends.

The £100,000 example at entry

Chosen contribution at age 65£100,000Allocated across the whole forty-rung ladder

Still in longevity sharing

£92,835

Thirty-nine later rungs remain invested. Their committed value can pass to surviving members.

Released to the member

£7,165

The first rung enters its distribution year. It is payable to the member or their beneficiary.

Rounded opening amounts add to £100,000. Each later rung follows the same sequence: investment and sharing, release, then payment. Pension savings outside the chosen contribution remain separate.

One rung for each year of income

A contribution is spread across the whole ladder. One rung prepares for the first payment year, another for the next, and so on. Distant rungs have more time for investment growth. Those approaching payment move towards assets suited to the cash they must provide.

The worked example starts with a £100,000 contribution at age 65 and forty annual payments. Consider the rung intended for income at age 85. It remains in the sharing pool until age 84, then moves into an individual distribution account for payment a year later.

The first four years of the ladder

Income yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4
Age 66
Distribution
£7,420 target
Age 67
Invested in the pool
Distribution
£7,420 target
Age 68
Invested in the pool
Distribution
£7,420 target
Age 69
Invested in the pool
Distribution
£7,420 target
  1. Income at age 66Release at entry, age 65.Then hold for the following year’s payment.
  2. Income at age 67Invest in the pool until release at age 66.Then hold for the following year’s payment.
  3. Income at age 68Invest in the pool until release at age 67.Then hold for the following year’s payment.
  4. Income at age 69Invest in the pool until release at age 68.Then hold for the following year’s payment.
First four rungs of the £100,000 example. Each rung leaves sharing one year before payment. The £7,420 nominal target uses the ideal-sharing funding model. Model assumptions.

Release ends that rung’s mortality commitment. Its money then belongs to the member or their beneficiaries, while later rungs continue to participate in sharing. The target is used to plan the investment; the payment depends on the assets available at release and the distribution policy.

How longevity sharing helps

Members agree that, on their death, the assets still committed to the pool will be allocated to surviving members. In return, they receive allocations while they remain eligible. Each receipt is invested across the recipient’s remaining ladder.

Choosing the contribution means choosing how much to commit to future income, and how much to retain outside sharing for flexibility and inheritance.

Sharing can reduce the initial cost of a future payment because that payment is conditional on reaching its release date. The commitments of members who do not reach that date help fund those who do. The later the date, the greater the potential contribution from sharing.

Work back to the starting investment

The amount needed today depends on the income target, the time available for growth and the risk the member is prepared to accept. A certainty equivalent is the certain amount a member values as highly as the modelled uncertain outcome. The corresponding discount rate lets us work back from the future target to its starting investment. A lower rate means setting aside more money today.

In the worked model, a £1,000 target at age 85 costs £468 initially without sharing. The model assumes a 56.8% chance of reaching release at age 84. Under ideal pooling, the sharing adjustment reduces the starting amount to £266. Both calculations use the same investments and risk preference.

Across all forty rungs, the same approach gives £100,000 an annual certainty-equivalent target of £7,420 with ideal sharing, compared with £4,907 without it. These targets use hypothetical returns and synthetic mortality. The simulations examine the income produced when actual FTP transfers replace the ideal sharing assumption.

Keep the arrangement fair

People of different ages and with different balances bring different exposures to the pool. A fair transfer plan, or FTP, sets allocations so that each member’s expected receipts equal the expected committed value they give up, under the mortality model. A separate calculation checks that equality before money moves.

A pension also needs the remaining pool to support future allocations. A fair transfer today can leave a smaller pool unable to share fairly next time. The research examines how allocations and distributions affect that capacity, including cases where several deaths are settled together.

The next step is to connect those rules to the complete income policy: how payments respond to investment outcomes, how new members join and how the final years of the ladder are supported. The simulations provide the member accounts and payment histories against which those choices can be tested.